Monday, March 19, 2007
No change in predictions
One week into the WC-2007 and I have no changes to make in my predictions. The men in blue really disappointed. However, I think everyone is being pretty unfair on Bangladesh. They played some exceptional cricket! It is almost similar to Sri Lanka in 1996, when they came out of the blue and stunned everyone with some innovative and explosive batting.
And Dave Whatmore was coach of SL then. Now he is with B'desh. [PS: Now that is a REASON, not a COINCIDENCE. There is a DIFFERENCE between the two. @KG - :-)]
All around me I see people going ballistic about net run rates, and making 3MB excel sheets with scenarios!! (@KG - no offense. It was good time-pass). However, there is one minor point which almost everyone seems to have missed...and no, it is not that we have taken it for granted that India beats SL. There is no other option for India. However, everyone HAS taken it for granted that Sri Lanka beats B'desh. If B'desh do beat SL, they will go through as group toppers and SL v/s India is a straight knock out. Calculators and laptops, thou shalt not decide the fate of cricket!! I do wish that this situation does come true. I really do not like minor technicalities deciding who wins and who loses.
Amidst all this, the death of Bob Woolmer just goes to show how trivial the game is. It is not life. It is not death. (hope there is no conspiracy theory to Woolmer's passing. Then "it is not death" would be wrong!!).
So, when the Indian's lose to Sri lanka (as I think will happen), please do keep some perspective. Enjoy the game...this really is one of the more interesting world cups in recent history.
And Dave Whatmore was coach of SL then. Now he is with B'desh. [PS: Now that is a REASON, not a COINCIDENCE. There is a DIFFERENCE between the two. @KG - :-)]
All around me I see people going ballistic about net run rates, and making 3MB excel sheets with scenarios!! (@KG - no offense. It was good time-pass). However, there is one minor point which almost everyone seems to have missed...and no, it is not that we have taken it for granted that India beats SL. There is no other option for India. However, everyone HAS taken it for granted that Sri Lanka beats B'desh. If B'desh do beat SL, they will go through as group toppers and SL v/s India is a straight knock out. Calculators and laptops, thou shalt not decide the fate of cricket!! I do wish that this situation does come true. I really do not like minor technicalities deciding who wins and who loses.
Amidst all this, the death of Bob Woolmer just goes to show how trivial the game is. It is not life. It is not death. (hope there is no conspiracy theory to Woolmer's passing. Then "it is not death" would be wrong!!).
So, when the Indian's lose to Sri lanka (as I think will happen), please do keep some perspective. Enjoy the game...this really is one of the more interesting world cups in recent history.
Friday, March 02, 2007
World Cup Predictions
With 10 days to go for the WC, its time to stick my neck out. And cover my backside at the same time. (trying it out...and...DONT TRY THIS AT HOME).
Semi-final line-up - West Indies, South Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka.
Final - South Africa, Sri Lanka (cant really be sure of this. They may meet in the semis itself)
Winner - Sri Lanka. (applause!!!)
Darkest horse - India (really unpredictable)
I do believe that this is going to be one of the best WCs of recent times. Almost all the teams have a good one-day outfit, and go into the WC in pretty good form. (with the possible exception of Pakistan)
Australia have shot themselves in the foot, and go in with quite a bit of self-doubt. The aura is gone, and everyone believes "If England can, so can we!!" However, they do have a really good one-day team, and if Gilly can fire, no reason why they should not do well.
SA are playing the best cricket of their existence. For once, they seem to have a semblance of class in the team. With batting extending till No. 10, they will always be difficult to beat. Their biggest weakness is the lack of a decent spinner, which will cost them dearly on the windies pitches. Especially if they are defending a target.
Windies are going to be a handful on home territory. However, their biggest weakness is the unpredictable nature of their seam attack. Chris Gayle is going to be one of the stars of the tournament. And with Lara opting to play a mentor's role in the middle of the innings, the batting is in fine fettle. The fielding is not up there, but I dont expect it to be a big handicap.
Sri Lanka, my favorites to lift the cup, go in having lost a one-day series. however, the loss was due to a poor bowling attack. With the return of 2 of the greatest one-day bowlers of all time, Vaas and Murali, they have every reason to be confident. However, a lot will depend on one of the back-up seamers - Malinga, Fernando and Maharoof - backing Vaas up in the first 10. They are going to be the most miserly team in the middle overs with Dilshan and Jayasurya. I expect these 2 to bowl close to 15 overs between them, if not more.
Pakistan go in being the worst prepared team, and under a huge black doping cloud. I dont expect them to do very well. The batting is in shambles save for the ever reliable Yousuf and Younis. Their all-rounders just don't make the cut and the bowling is mediocre at best.
India do have the capability to spring a surprise. Its the last world cup for the big 4 - Sachin, Sourav, Dravid and Kumble. If three of the four can fire, 1983 shall repeat. However, Kumble is a key man, having kept out the best spinner in the country - Ramesh Powar. Unfortunately, his recent performances have been patchy, and I dont expect him to play the important games. Its a big tragedy that Powar is not in the team. He is the best spinner in India by miles!! However, the selectors seem to have bracketed a medium pacer - Harbhajan - as an off spinner. Tragic. And a left arm spinner - Pathan - as a medium pacer. Sigh!! In spite of this, there is enough quality in the team to go all the way. Somehow, I dont think they will. Will be thrilled to be wrong.
England and New Zealand did well down-under. But their game just does not come together in the dusty Caribbean pitches. But I do expect them to pull off one upset each to keep (maybe India) out of the semis.
Let the action begin!!
Semi-final line-up - West Indies, South Africa, Australia, Sri Lanka.
Final - South Africa, Sri Lanka (cant really be sure of this. They may meet in the semis itself)
Winner - Sri Lanka. (applause!!!)
Darkest horse - India (really unpredictable)
I do believe that this is going to be one of the best WCs of recent times. Almost all the teams have a good one-day outfit, and go into the WC in pretty good form. (with the possible exception of Pakistan)
Australia have shot themselves in the foot, and go in with quite a bit of self-doubt. The aura is gone, and everyone believes "If England can, so can we!!" However, they do have a really good one-day team, and if Gilly can fire, no reason why they should not do well.
SA are playing the best cricket of their existence. For once, they seem to have a semblance of class in the team. With batting extending till No. 10, they will always be difficult to beat. Their biggest weakness is the lack of a decent spinner, which will cost them dearly on the windies pitches. Especially if they are defending a target.
Windies are going to be a handful on home territory. However, their biggest weakness is the unpredictable nature of their seam attack. Chris Gayle is going to be one of the stars of the tournament. And with Lara opting to play a mentor's role in the middle of the innings, the batting is in fine fettle. The fielding is not up there, but I dont expect it to be a big handicap.
Sri Lanka, my favorites to lift the cup, go in having lost a one-day series. however, the loss was due to a poor bowling attack. With the return of 2 of the greatest one-day bowlers of all time, Vaas and Murali, they have every reason to be confident. However, a lot will depend on one of the back-up seamers - Malinga, Fernando and Maharoof - backing Vaas up in the first 10. They are going to be the most miserly team in the middle overs with Dilshan and Jayasurya. I expect these 2 to bowl close to 15 overs between them, if not more.
Pakistan go in being the worst prepared team, and under a huge black doping cloud. I dont expect them to do very well. The batting is in shambles save for the ever reliable Yousuf and Younis. Their all-rounders just don't make the cut and the bowling is mediocre at best.
India do have the capability to spring a surprise. Its the last world cup for the big 4 - Sachin, Sourav, Dravid and Kumble. If three of the four can fire, 1983 shall repeat. However, Kumble is a key man, having kept out the best spinner in the country - Ramesh Powar. Unfortunately, his recent performances have been patchy, and I dont expect him to play the important games. Its a big tragedy that Powar is not in the team. He is the best spinner in India by miles!! However, the selectors seem to have bracketed a medium pacer - Harbhajan - as an off spinner. Tragic. And a left arm spinner - Pathan - as a medium pacer. Sigh!! In spite of this, there is enough quality in the team to go all the way. Somehow, I dont think they will. Will be thrilled to be wrong.
England and New Zealand did well down-under. But their game just does not come together in the dusty Caribbean pitches. But I do expect them to pull off one upset each to keep (maybe India) out of the semis.
Let the action begin!!
